Machine Learning-Based Demand Prediction for Factory Production Planning of Shampoo, Body Wash, and Laundry Detergent (Regression)
Accurate demand prediction can support factory production planning by reducing the risk of overproduction, stockouts, and inefficient inventory decisions. This project develops a supervised machine learning regression workflow for shampoo, body wash, and laundry detergent. Because real factory records were not supplied, a synthetic demonstration dataset was used transparently to implement and test the proposed pipeline without claiming real factory performance. The dataset contains 177 monthly product records and includes product type, month and season, previous sales, stock quantity, price, promotion, customer order quantity, and previous production quantity. Three regression algorithms - Linear Regression, Decision Tree Regressor, and Random Forest Regressor - were trained using a time-aware train/test split. Performance was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). On the synthetic test set, Linear Regression achieved the best result with MAE 62.5, RMSE 81.2, and R2 0.913. The workflow also produces feature-importance evidence and an illustrative production recommendation based on predicted demand, current stock, and a 10% safety-stock rule. The project demonstrates an end-to-end, reproducible framework that can be rerun with authorized real factory data for operational use.
13 Aug 2026
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